Missouri Bicycle News Article

Since the general elections last November, several people have mentioned to me that they believe the "bicycle vote" swung the election for Lieutenant Governor in favor of Peter Kinder--who, as Lieutenant Governor and Chairman of the Missouri Tourism Commission, has been the chief organizer and force behind the Tour of Missouri.

Not only was the Lieutenant Governor seen as a bicycle supporter, but his opponent, Sam Page, ran a really tacky ad making fun of the Tour and of bicycling in general.

Boosting the argument is the close nature of the race--Kinder won 49.9% to 47.3%--and the fact that Kinder turned out to be the only Republican to win a statewide elected office last November.

What factor made that possible? Well, a stronger showing by Kinder, compared with other Republican candidates last November, in Missouri's cities sure helped.

In Missouri, Republicans typically win statewide elections by taking the rural areas by a wide margin and winning just enough of a "swing vote" in the cities to put them over the top.

Statewide Democrats usually do the opposite--overwhelmingly high percentage of votes in their "base" in the cities and just enough of a "swing vote" in the rural areas to put them over the top.

And Kinder won just this way--taking the rural areas handily and holding onto just enough votes in the cities to take him over the top.

Other state-wide Republicans couldn't hold on to enough of those "swing votes" in the cities to put them over the top--and that's one explanation for why they lost.

So the question is, why did Kinder get more votes in the cities than most other similar candidates?

Until recently, I honestly wouldn't have believed there was enough of a bicycle vote in Missouri to make a difference in a general election. But in talking with people--lots of people, all across the state--since the November elections, I'm starting to change my mind.

* We know there are two million bicyclists in Missouri (we also know they are of all different political parties--almost the same proportions as Missouri as a whole--and they tend to vote more often and donate to candidates more often than the general populace).

* We have seen *lots* of those two million bicyclists at the Tour of Missouri (over 800,000 total attendance at both years of the Tour so far--and though of course many of those are repeat attenders, it's still quite easy to believe there are two million bicycling supporters in Missouri if, for example, you've seen 200,000 of them show up at the Tour).

* We know that bicycle-related matters strongly affect bicyclists' votes.

* Most every bicyclist I've talked to since the election said that that Kinder's support of the Tour of Missouri and Page's anti-bicycle ad had influenced their vote. That doesn't mean that everyone ended up voting for Kinder--most of us don't decide any vote on any one single issue. But strong Kinder supporters became stronger, undecided people became more inclined to vote for Kinder, and previously staunch Page supporters gave Kinder some consideration and thought they normally wouldn't.

In short--bicycling factored into people's voting decision in a far stronger way than I would have imagined.

And--for what it's worth--in my discussion with Kinder's staff, they seem more than certain that the bicycling vote is one of the factors that carried the election.

*

Related:

News: Harkin "Complete Streets" Amendment fails; MO Sen. Bond speaks against

TourOfMO: Governor promotes Tour of Missouri in St. Louis

News: Tour of Missouri ON for 2009; Gov. Nixon statement

Tour of Missouri News: Prominent Democrats ask Governor Nixon to support Tour of Missouri

News: Lt Governor's Race: Are Sam Page's ads anti-bicycle?