U.S. has hit 'peak car'

Researcher Michael Sivak summarized the situation in the U.S. in a recently released report (PDF). Streetsblog summarized Sivak's conclusions:

In his report, “Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked?” [PDF], Sivak concludes that the dip in total vehicles coincides with the economic downturn and will probably rise again with population.

But significantly, Sivak found that the ratio of cars to people is dropping – and will likely continue to drop. Since these rates started to decline before the recession, Sivak concludes that there are other explanations for the decline.

“These rates started to decline not because of economic changes but because of other societal changes that influence the need for vehicles,” Sivak wrote. “Thus, in contrast to the absolute numbers, the recent maxima in the rates have a better chance of being long-term peaks as well.

Vehicle ratios per person, per licensed driver, and per household all peaked between 2001 and 2006. There were 0.79 vehicles per person in 2006 and 0.75 in 2011, the most recent year for which data are available. Vehicles per licensed driver hit 1.16 in 2001, 2005, and 2006 but is now back down to 1.10. And in 2011, the number of vehicles per household was at its lowest point since 1993 – 1.95 vehicles per household, after being above 2.0 for 11 years.

Maybe it’s because about one-third more people are telecommuting than in 2000, Sivak speculates, or because the share of Americans commuting by transit has risen from 4.7 percent to 5.0 percent.

The decline in driving has been measured in countless ways – reduced vehicles miles driven, teens getting drivers licenses later, changing priorities about where to live and how to travel. The decline in household and personal car ownership rates is another lens through which to view our rapidly changing societal trend toward more sustainable transportation and more livable communities.

What does this mean for transportation planning and funding in Missouri and throughout the country?
The increase in the amount of driving in the U.S. simply can't continue at the same rate it has done over the past century, a time period during which we have gone from practically no cars at all to one per family (1950) to one per driver (1980s) to more than one per driver.

So future projections of vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. must range somewhere between a slight annual decrease in VMT to a slight annual increase, roughly in proportion to population growth.  The latter appears to be Sivak's conclusion.

However, traffic engineers and DOTs around the country--and particularly around Missouri!--are still very often planning for new roads, road widening, and traffic counts in proportion to the mega-growth of vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. that happened during the 1900-2000 time period--rather than the new reality, where growth in motorized traffic is varies between slight decreases and slight increases.

Given that bicycling and walking are going through an inflationary growth phase at the same time motor vehicle miles have been flat to slightly down, a new direction is called for in our national, state, and local transportation plans and priorities.

The recent Missouri statewide transportation funding proposal: Will it meet our future transportation needs?

One positive sign in Missouri: MoDOT's recent funding proposal, and its current long-range planning process, are the first in Missouri's history to completely integrate support for transit, biking, and walking alongside funding for roads, highways, and motor vehicles. 

This change in outlook--close to 180 degrees from MoDOT's position just fifteen years ago--came about in large part because MoDOT leadership and our state's political leaders see the same trends that the rest of us do: A little less driving and a lot more bicycling, walking, and transit use in Missouri's future.

So signs are positive--but the details of MoDOT's proposed long-range plan remain to be seen, as do the proposed project lists and specifics about spending for Missouri's proposed new $8 billion transportation funding plan.  When those specifics are revealed, we will have a much better idea about whether MoDOT is making a real, fundamental change or not.

 

Photo credit

1. Waiting for MoDOT by Zaskem, FlickR. License: Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 2.0