U.S. vehicle miles traveled level or declining--a huge shift in America's transportation direction
The State Smart Transportation Initiative (SSTI) has released new research showing that the amount of driving in America--the "Vehicle Miles Traveled" or "VMT--has reached a peak.
This is an issue that MoBikeFed and other bicycle & pedestrian advocacy groups across the country have been talking about for some years.
With decisions and planning for Missouri's new $8 billion transportation funding proposal going forward now, it is imperative that we understand the future of transportation in Missouri--and that is a future where the amount of driving has leveled off and other options, such as bicycling, walking, and transit, and increasing in importance.
As researchers such as Steven Polzin suggested even before the recent downturn, many of the factors that contributed to rapid increases in driving during the twentieth century have nearly reached their peak. These include the rise of women in the workforce, the baby boom, an emerging middle class, and growing automobile ownership. As these trends flatten out or decrease, so too will VMT in the coming decades.
Another important consideration is that, while trip lengths and trip frequencies rose for decades, Americans appear to be pushing the upper bounds of how much they will drive. The costs of automobile ownership, the amount of time people are willing to spend in their cars, and rising levels of traffic congestion impose limits on the number of miles each person can realistically travel.
Finally, Americans have begun to favor a style of living in which driving plays a less important role. Young people, in particular, are driving less and relying more on transit, biking, and walking, regardless of employment status or income. Compact, mixed-use living arrangements are becoming more popular, particularly among young adults and aging retirees. These trends are generally expected to continue, driving down per capita VMT even further and limiting overall VMT growth.
Among the ramifications for transportation funding and planning in Missouri:
- For decades, transportation planners and engineers have made road and highway planning decisions with the idea that the amount of driving per capita would be going up-up-up. More lanes, more turn lanes, more off-ramps, more capacity is always going to be needed in the future, so you'd be well advised to add them now. The day for that sort of planning is over--though many individuals are still clinging to the old ways.
- The amount of driving is not decreasing by a very noticeable amount. But much of that gap is being filled in by more walking, bicycling, and transit use--and those modes have been increasing by leaps and bounds. Just for example, if just 5% of driving trips were converted to bicycling and walking, that would nearly double the amount of bicycling and walking in Missouri. So a relatively small shift in Missourians' driving habits means we need to make dramatic changes in accommodating for biking and walking--transportation options that have been largely neglected as Missouri's paved road network has been built up over the past century.
- The difference in preferences of young vs. old means that these trends are only going to accelerate in the future. The ramifications for planning for Missouri's proposed $8 billion transportation funding proposal couldn't be more clear. Continuing to plan, build, and prioritize our transportation dollars the way we have for the past 100 years will not meet the needs of Missourians in the 21st century.
MoBikeFed's Vision for Bicycling and Walking in Missouri sets the standard for what Missouri's bicycle and pedestrian network should look like in the 21st Century. Your membership and support helps turn our Vision into reality!
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